Occurrence of flash drought in reservoirs in the semi-arid area of the Ceará State, Brazil

分类： 地球科学 >> 大气科学 提交时间： 2025-07-17 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

Suellen Teixeira Nobre GONÇALVES Francisco das Chagas VASCONCELOS JÚNIOR Cleiton da Silva SILVEIRA José Micael Ferreira da COSTA

摘要： Precipitation is scarce in semi-arid areas, which results in serious drought. Occurrence of flash drought is quite often in these areas, and flash drought may also cause significant disasters. However, monitoring flash drought is still weak and remains a challenge. This study aims to identify, evaluate, and monitor flash drought events that occurred from 1961 to 2020 in reservoirs of the Ceará State, Brazil. The Christian's method, standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) were used to assess the severity and persistence of flash drought. Moreover, analyses conducted in 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2016, and 2020 revealed the complexity and interaction of flash drought with environmental and meteorological factors. The results indicated that in dry years such as 2001, 2012, and 2016, drought indices pointed to the intensification of drought conditions, with impacts on major reservoirs in the area, such as Banabuiú, Castanhão, and Orós. Low precipitation, associated with high evaporative demand, intensified water stress, reducing water availability for the population and local ecosystems. In wet years such as 2008, 2011, and 2020, SPEI and EDDI indicated higher moisture levels and drought relief, favoring the recovery of reservoirs. It was also observed that most flash drought episodes evolved into conventional droughts, highlighting their persistence and potential long-term impact. Moreover, the months of May and November presented a higher frequency of flash drought during the wet and dry periods, respectively, negatively impacting most of the studied reservoirs. These findings underscore the need for effective drought monitoring and mitigation strategies to reduce its impacts on agriculture and water resources in the semi-arid area. Early detection and analysis of flash drought are important for improving water resource management and for continuous adaptation to changing drought conditions.

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