Effects of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity: A case study of the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

分类： 生物学 >> 生态学 提交时间： 2025-07-17 合作期刊: 《干旱区科学》

ZHANG Jinlong MA Xiaofang QI Yuan YANG Rui LI Long ZHANG Juan MA Chao WANG Lu WANG Hongwei

摘要： Grassland is a key component of the ecosystem in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China. Understanding the effects of climate change and human activities on grassland productivity significantly improves ecological conservation and promotes sustainable vegetation growth in this area. Based on the net primary productivity (NPP) products of MOD17A3HGF (a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) product that provides annual NPP at 500 m resolution) and meteorological data, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of grassland NPP and its interaction with climate factors in the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2001 to 2022 via partial correlation and trend analysis methods. We also used the deflecting trend residual method and scenario analysis method to quantitatively assess the relative contributions of climatic factors and human activities to grassland NPP. The results revealed that: (1) during the past 22 a, grassland NPP increased considerably, with a gradient change from the northwest to the southeast of the study area; (2) sunshine duration, precipitation, and temperature positively influenced grassland NPP, with sunshine duration exerting a stronger effect on grassland NPP than precipitation and temperature; and (3) 98.47% of the grassland in the study area was restored, with an average contribution of 65.00% from human activities and 35.00% from climatic alterations. Compared with climate change, human-induced factors had a greater effect on grassland NPP in this area. The results of the study not only provide important scientific support for ecological restoration and sustainable development of the basin but also offer new ideas for research on similar ecologically fragile areas.

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