阿克苏河流域蒸散量时空变化规律与驱动因素 后印本

Краткое изложение: Evapotranspiration, as a crucial component of the water cycle, is vital for water resource regulation and ecological protection, especially in arid regions where it plays a significant role in water consumption and redistribution. This study focuses on the Aksu River Basin and utilizes MOD16 evapotranspiration product data from 2001 to 2022 to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal variation patterns of actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET); and to explore their influencing factors. The findings provide a scientific basis for regional water resource management and ecological environmental protection. The results indicate that: (1) The MOD16 product data are consistent with ET0 data (R² = 0.8133); and the product accuracy meets the requirements for studying the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration in the Aksu River Basin; (2) The multi-year average AET and PET are 168.36 mm and 1569.03 mm, respectively. AET shows an overall increasing trend, while PET exhibits a decreasing trend. There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of AET and PET, with opposite trends; (3) Over the past 22 years, AET in the Aksu River Basin has increased significantly, mainly in cultivated land, forestland, and oases, while PET has decreased overall but increased near the edges of oases and along river channels. AET is less stable than PET, and the Hurst indices of both indicate that future trends may change, with 56% of the area showing anti-persistence for AET and 89% for PET; (4) Changes in AET and PET are intrinsically linked to changes in climatic factors, with wind speed and relative humidity being the main driving factors influencing regional AET and PET variations. This study provides an important reference for water resource management and scientific utilization in arid regions.